Why We're Not Concerned Yet About Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation's (HKG:981) 31% Share Price Plunge

The Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (HKG:981) share price has softened a substantial 31% over the previous 30 days, handing back much of the gains the stock has made lately. The good news is that in the last year, the stock has shone bright like a diamond, gaining 160%.

In spite of the heavy fall in price, given close to half the companies in Hong Kong have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 10x, you may still consider Semiconductor Manufacturing International as a stock to avoid entirely with its 78.6x P/E ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

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Semiconductor Manufacturing International hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining earnings compare poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth on average. It might be that many expect the dour earnings performance to recover substantially, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be extremely nervous about the viability of the share price.

See our latest analysis for Semiconductor Manufacturing International

Does Growth Match The High P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Semiconductor Manufacturing International would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 46%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 71% in aggregate. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 33% each year as estimated by the analysts watching the company. That's shaping up to be materially higher than the 14% each year growth forecast for the broader market.

With this information, we can see why Semiconductor Manufacturing International is trading at such a high P/E compared to the market. It seems most investors are expecting this strong future growth and are willing to pay more for the stock.

The Bottom Line On Semiconductor Manufacturing International's P/E

Even after such a strong price drop, Semiconductor Manufacturing International's P/E still exceeds the rest of the market significantly. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

As we suspected, our examination of Semiconductor Manufacturing International's analyst forecasts revealed that its superior earnings outlook is contributing to its high P/E. At this stage investors feel the potential for a deterioration in earnings isn't great enough to justify a lower P/E ratio. It's hard to see the share price falling strongly in the near future under these circumstances.

You always need to take note of risks, for example - Semiconductor Manufacturing International has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Semiconductor Manufacturing International. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.