The crypto market had either a great week or a terrible week depending on how you look at it. From a policy perspective, it looks like the U.S. continues to embrace crypto and that's good news. But that didn't translate to better valuations for cryptocurrencies themselves, which fell double digits almost across the board.
No surprise, when cryptocurrencies fall, Coinbase Global (NASDAQ: COIN) is one of the most affected. According to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence, shares of Coinbase fell as much as 17.6% this week and are off 16% as of 3 p.m. ET. Bitcoin miner Mara Holdings (NASDAQ: MARA) dropped as much as 22.7% and is now down 19.2% while popular cryptocurrency Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) dropped as much as 16.8% and is now down 8.7% for the week.
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After making pro-crypto moves at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), it's been reported that President Donald Trump will officially roll back the Biden-era anti-crypto policies referred to by some as "Operation Chokepoint 2.0," which limited what regulated banks could do in the crypto area.
The U.S. Stablecoins Act also passed the Senate Banking Committee with a bipartisan vote.
The only negative was a delay in the approval of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), including a Solana ETF, which could bring more funds into the space.
While the news seemed good on the crypto policy front, it wasn't good on the macro policy front.
Trump announced additional tariffs this week and then delayed some tariffs, but the general trend is higher tariffs on imports from around the world, which is being met with tariffs from trading partners. The fear is that tariffs will lead to a recession in the U.S., which may already be taking hold as consumers pull back spending and companies stockpile cash.
Investors don't like uncertainty in the market and there tends to be a "risk off" trade when uncertainty or negative economic news hits. As a highly risky asset, cryptocurrencies have fallen significantly on these macro headwinds.
For Coinbase and Mara, a rise in crypto prices and volatility helps their valuations and that activity may have peaked early in 2025. In the last few weeks, Bitcoin has fallen and trading activity has gone down with it.
That could be a double whammy for Mara, which generates value by mining for Bitcoin and also holds Bitcoin on the balance sheet.
Coinbase is a slightly different story, generating most of its revenue from crypto trading. So, when volatility drops so does the company's revenue. What investors will want to watch going forward is the company's blockchain revenue, not just what it makes on trading.
The crypto market may have hit its peak earlier this year and investors have gone from buying based on speculation to selling on news of changes in crypto regulations. The changes being made are bullish for the industry long-term, but the economic story is more important and until that turns around I would expect a rough road for crypto investors.
Travis Hoium has positions in Coinbase Global and Solana. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin, Coinbase Global, and Solana. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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