Vistar Holdings Limited's (HKG:8535) 31% Price Boost Is Out Of Tune With Earnings

Vistar Holdings Limited (HKG:8535) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 31% after a shaky period beforehand. Looking further back, the 18% rise over the last twelve months isn't too bad notwithstanding the strength over the last 30 days.

After such a large jump in price, given close to half the companies in Hong Kong have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 10x, you may consider Vistar Holdings as a stock to avoid entirely with its 21.2x P/E ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

For example, consider that Vistar Holdings' financial performance has been poor lately as its earnings have been in decline. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

View our latest analysis for Vistar Holdings

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the market for P/E ratios like Vistar Holdings' to be considered reasonable.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 35% decrease to the company's bottom line. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 91% in aggregate. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 20% shows it's an unpleasant look.

In light of this, it's alarming that Vistar Holdings' P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

What We Can Learn From Vistar Holdings' P/E?

Shares in Vistar Holdings have built up some good momentum lately, which has really inflated its P/E. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

Our examination of Vistar Holdings revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Vistar Holdings (of which 2 make us uncomfortable!) you should know about.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Vistar Holdings. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.