Johnson Controls Stock: Is JCI Underperforming the Industrial Sector?

Cork, Ireland-based Johnson Controls International plc (JCI) engineers, manufactures, commissions, and retrofits building products and systems. Valued at a market cap of almost $52.9 billion, the company offers a wide range of products and technologies for heating, ventilation, air conditioning (HVAC), fire protection, security, and energy management.

Companies valued at $10 billion or more are typically classified as “large-cap stocks,” and JCI fits the label perfectly, with its market cap exceeding this threshold, underscoring its size, influence, and dominance within the building products & equipment industry. The company stands out for its expertise in smart building solutions, energy efficiency, and sustainability-driven innovations. With a strong global presence and a diverse customer base across commercial, industrial, and residential markets, this multinational conglomerate benefits from long-term contracts and recurring service revenue.

This building products and technology solutions provider is currently trading 14.5% below its 52-week high of $91.14, reached on Feb. 18. Moreover, JCI has declined 5.9% over the past three months, underperforming the broader Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund’s (XLI) 4.9% loss during the same time frame.

Moreover, on a YTD basis, shares of Johnson Controls are down 1.3%, compared to XLI’s marginal rise over the same time frame. However, in the longer term, JCI has rallied 26.2% over the past 52 weeks, considerably outpacing XLI’s 8.1% uptick. 

JCI dipped below its 50-day moving average in March but held strong above its 200-day mark over the past year, signaling a mixed yet resilient trend. 

On Feb. 10, JCI stock gained 2.1% after UBS upgraded the stock from ‘Neutral’ to ‘Buy’ and raised the price target to $103. The upgrade came shortly after the appointment of Joakim Weidemanis as the company's new chief executive, signaling confidence in his leadership and future growth prospects.

On Feb. 5, the stock skyrocketed 11.3% following its strong Q1 earnings release, which exceeded expectations. The company posted revenue of $5.4 billion, which advanced 4.2% from the year-ago quarter and exceeded Wall Street’s estimates by 1.9%. Moreover, its adjusted EPS improved by a notable 39.1% year-over-year to $0.64 and topped the forecasted figure by 8.5%. Robust order growth and substantial margin expansion across all business segments aided the results. 

Adding to the positives, JCI raised its full-year 2025 guidance for both margins and adjusted EPS, citing strong operational performance and strategic initiatives. The company now anticipates adjusted EPS between $3.50 and $3.60.

JCI has outpaced its rival, Carrier Global Corporation’s (CARR) 15.5% gain over the past 52 weeks and 1.8% decline on a YTD basis. 

Despite Johnson Controls’ recent underperformance relative to its broader sector, analysts remain moderately optimistic about its prospects. The stock has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” from the 19 analysts covering it, and the mean price target of $95 suggests a modest 21.9% premium to its current levels.