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Qifu Technology (NASDAQ:QFIN) jumps 3.4% this week, though earnings growth is still tracking behind five-year shareholder returns

Simply Wall St·03/10/2025 17:34:10
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Buying shares in the best businesses can build meaningful wealth for you and your family. And highest quality companies can see their share prices grow by huge amounts. To wit, the Qifu Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:QFIN) share price has soared 516% over five years. This just goes to show the value creation that some businesses can achieve. We note the stock price is up 3.4% in the last seven days. It really delights us to see such great share price performance for investors.

Since the stock has added US$208m to its market cap in the past week alone, let's see if underlying performance has been driving long-term returns.

View our latest analysis for Qifu Technology

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During five years of share price growth, Qifu Technology achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 12% per year. This EPS growth is slower than the share price growth of 44% per year, over the same period. This suggests that market participants hold the company in higher regard, these days. And that's hardly shocking given the track record of growth.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
NasdaqGS:QFIN Earnings Per Share Growth March 10th 2025

We know that Qifu Technology has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? If you're interested, you could check this free report showing consensus revenue forecasts.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Qifu Technology, it has a TSR of 617% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Qifu Technology shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 180% over the last year. Of course, that includes the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 48% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Qifu Technology that you should be aware of before investing here.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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