CLSA Premium Limited (HKG:6877) Stock Rockets 33% As Investors Are Less Pessimistic Than Expected

CLSA Premium Limited (HKG:6877) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 33% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Longer-term shareholders would be thankful for the recovery in the share price since it's now virtually flat for the year after the recent bounce.

Following the firm bounce in price, CLSA Premium may be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 21.7x, since almost half of all companies in Hong Kong have P/E ratios under 9x and even P/E's lower than 5x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

As an illustration, earnings have deteriorated at CLSA Premium over the last year, which is not ideal at all. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

View our latest analysis for CLSA Premium

How Is CLSA Premium's Growth Trending?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the market for P/E ratios like CLSA Premium's to be considered reasonable.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 6.9%. This has erased any of its gains during the last three years, with practically no change in EPS being achieved in total. Therefore, it's fair to say that earnings growth has been inconsistent recently for the company.

Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 21% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker based on recent medium-term annualised earnings results.

In light of this, it's alarming that CLSA Premium's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

What We Can Learn From CLSA Premium's P/E?

CLSA Premium's P/E is flying high just like its stock has during the last month. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

Our examination of CLSA Premium revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with CLSA Premium (at least 1 which shouldn't be ignored), and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

You might be able to find a better investment than CLSA Premium. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.