Asia Grocery Distribution Limited's (HKG:8413) Share Price Could Signal Some Risk

With a median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of close to 0.6x in the Consumer Retailing industry in Hong Kong, you could be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Asia Grocery Distribution Limited's (HKG:8413) P/S ratio of 0.5x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

See our latest analysis for Asia Grocery Distribution

How Asia Grocery Distribution Has Been Performing

It looks like revenue growth has deserted Asia Grocery Distribution recently, which is not something to boast about. One possibility is that the P/S is moderate because investors think this benign revenue growth rate might not be enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. Those who are bullish on Asia Grocery Distribution will be hoping that this isn't the case, so that they can pick up the stock at a lower valuation.

Is There Some Revenue Growth Forecasted For Asia Grocery Distribution?

Asia Grocery Distribution's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered virtually the same number to the company's top line as the year before. Still, the latest three year period was better as it's delivered a decent 20% overall rise in revenue. Therefore, it's fair to say that revenue growth has been inconsistent recently for the company.

Comparing the recent medium-term revenue trends against the industry's one-year growth forecast of 10% shows it's noticeably less attractive.

In light of this, it's curious that Asia Grocery Distribution's P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. They may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

What Does Asia Grocery Distribution's P/S Mean For Investors?

Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

We've established that Asia Grocery Distribution's average P/S is a bit surprising since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider industry forecast. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/S as this revenue performance isn't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, the probability of a share price decline will become quite substantial, placing shareholders at risk.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Asia Grocery Distribution you should be aware of.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.