Some Confidence Is Lacking In Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group Limited (HKG:8223) As Shares Slide 25%

Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group Limited (HKG:8223) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a blow with a 25% share price drop in the last month. Looking back over the past twelve months the stock has been a solid performer regardless, with a gain of 16%.

In spite of the heavy fall in price, Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 53.5x might still make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Hong Kong, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 9x and even P/E's below 5x are quite common. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

It looks like earnings growth has deserted Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group recently, which is not something to boast about. It might be that many are expecting an improvement to the uninspiring earnings performance over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

See our latest analysis for Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as steep as Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market decidedly.

Taking a look back first, we see that there was hardly any earnings per share growth to speak of for the company over the past year. Still, the latest three year period was better as it's delivered a decent 16% overall rise in EPS. So it appears to us that the company has had a mixed result in terms of growing earnings over that time.

Weighing that recent medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 23% shows it's noticeably less attractive on an annualised basis.

In light of this, it's alarming that Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group's shares may have retreated, but its P/E is still flying high. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

Our examination of Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance isn't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 4 warning signs for Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group (1 is concerning!) that you need to be mindful of.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Ziyuanyuan Holdings Group. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.